Brandon's Blog
9/15/09
We had a good rally day in the markets today. Outside markets and a frost in the 10 day forcast for the northern plains is the reason for the strong markets. With this rally we have new crop cash beans over 9.00 dollars again; if you have any sales you want to make I think now is the time to price them. Looking to next year on beans we are sitting around 8.65 for new crop next year, I think that would be a good starting point on getting the first 5 to 10 bushels to the acre priced for off the combine next year.
Corn we are sitting right at 3.00 new crop 09 and 3.30 new crop 10 not too great of number for new crop 09 but a number maybe worth looking at for new crop 10 corn with the lower input cost projected for next year.
Wheat is right around 4.50 nearby and 5.00 new crop 10. I don't quite know what to think about the wheat yet. Of course these are my opinions on the market and only you can make the right decision for your situation.
If you have any pricing that you might be interested in make sure to give Kelly or myself a call. If you have any offers on your grain throw them our way we can watch the markets and let you know when we get close to those values.
You can also talk to Tammy, Allie, or Grant about fall fertilizer pricing and application.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
9/10/09
The September US Production Numbers are to be released in the morning on 9/11/09. Market ideas on the US crop are still up in the air with several different ranges out there. If the USDA comes out with an average corn yield of 163 bushels per acre then expect weakness to persist in the markets, if it comes out at 160 bushels per acre then we should see some supportive numbers for that type of number.
Soybeans overall the market is expecting an increase in production from 41.7 BPA to the mid 42 BPA. However an expected increase in demand should neutralize the soybean values.
Wheat market is on it heels and is not looking like any solid footing will be found with this report. World wheat stocks are up and there seems to be no demand increase expected out of this report to provide any positive news.
With soybeans being persistent and hanging around the $9.00 cash value I would think if you have any new crop unpriced we still have the opportunity to receive a good value for your beans.
Wheat cash prices are still weaker and with alot of lower protein spring coming out of North Dakota, protein discounts are still steep and look to stay there.
Corn prices are still variable on when we get a freeze, the whole Great Plains and Midwest is still holding its breath on being able to make it til early October with out a freeze.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
8/11/09
The August Supply and Demand report came out today as did the revised acreage report. Corn acreage came out a little bit lower than the June 30th report but still quite a bit higher than what market analysts are saying. Expected average yield was raised from 153.4 to 159.5. The corn crop throughout Iowa and Nebraska looks better than it ever has according some market reports. They are however behind schedule, like we are, and any reports of a early frost could throw everything out the window.
Soybeans average yield was lowered and demand was also lowered. The lower yield did make the expected year end carryout lower from 250 million to 210 million.
Wheat production was increased, the expected carryout for the year was also increased. With above average wheat crop coming in and expected to continue throughout the great plains in the US.
Right now the market is in a holding pattern. We have an above average wheat crop coming in across much of the US and we have what looks to be a good row crop if it gets to maturity. When we have a frost is going to be the big question, an early frost and the markets go higher; September 17th frost or later and it will have less and less of an impact.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
6/16/09
Grain markets have been volatile the last couple of weeks; the reason has been the influence from the outside markets (energy and currency).
The latest crop condition reports have been showing the U.S. crop that is planted is in really good shape. The next arguement in preparing for the next supply and demand report at the end of the month is how much of each crop actually got planted.
Wheat harvest is underway in Oklahoma, the bushels are down from normal years but so far have been maybe a little better than expected. The quality of the new crop wheat out of the southern plains has been good.
If you have any questions or want to talk about the markets give Kelly or myself a call at the elevator.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
6/1/09
We have had a steady raise in the commodity prices since early May. The raise has been attributed to delays in planting in the eastern Corn Belt, winter wheat conditions in Oklahoma and Texas, and the outside markets.
Cash values are getting close to $4.00 for corn in nearby markets and slightly over $4.00 for new crop corn. Soybeans are over $11.00 for nearby delivery and right at $10.00 for new crop delivery. Spring wheat values are over $7.50 nearby delivery and around $7.30 new crop delivery.
Planting progress / Crop conditions report comes out this afternoon we should see what the crop is starting to look like across the country with that report that comes out today.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
5/12/09
The May Supply and Demand report came out this morning.
Corn -- Exports and ethanol production were expected to be up in the next year leading to less corn available, carryout was reduced by 100 million bushels.
Soybeans -- Exports and domestic use were increased, leading to less carryout in the beans by about 35 million bushels.
Wheat -- Exports were increased from last month leading to a decreased carryout for wheat by about 27 million bushels.
Overall the report was bullish for today's session of trade. World carryout was decreased for corn and beans while increased for wheat, so the impact on wheat could be minimal.
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
5/11/09
Another planting progress and crop condition report came out today. Corn planting is still behind schedule but still significant progress from last week. Soybean planting is already behind but we still have plenty of time to get the beans in the ground. The winter wheat condition is right around where it is normally for this time of year. Texas and Oklahoma are severely hurt but Kansas, Nebraska, and South Dakota are currently making up for them.
A new monthly supply and demand report comes out tomorrow; the market today as usual was trying to position themselves in front of it. No big surprises are expected on the report but this time of year you never know when a big shake up could happen in the market.
Hope everyone is in the field and is having a safe spring.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
4/27/09
Grains traded lower today with swine flu epidemic spreading in Mexico and and spots in the US. The biggest thing is traders do not want to have long positions prompting them to sell off their postions. Pork Futures traded limit down today as well.
Planting progress reports also came out today. Corn is estimated at 22% complete, 5% less than average, 13% more than last year. Soybeans are estimated 3% planted, 2% less than average, 1% more than last year. As you know spring wheat planting is well behind the average and winter wheat crop rating is 45% good/excellent slightly lower than the average of 51%.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser
4/24/09
We are still on the wild ride that is marketing the 2008 crop and starting to market the 2009 crop. The futures markets have been pushed around by outside factors (energies and money markets) rather than the fundamentals of the grains. Basis values have been holding steady here as of late, new crop bean values appreciated quite a bit a couple of weeks ago so if you guys are interested in locking up some bean basis on new crop contracts give me a call.
Wheat basis has been steady both old and new crop, holding fairly firm old crop and steady for new crop being this far out from harvest.
Corn basis values have been hot and cold these last couple weeks. It has been a function of weather between storms and people trying to get ready for the field.
For those that missed our marketing meeting there was some encouraging news from, Jeff Beal, Strategic Marketing Services, and that was there is support for grains in the range we have been trading in the last 6 months. The downside is that costs have increased making it tougher. Some of the drivers for the support of the grain markets is basically supply and demand issues combined with stocks reports that have all been encouraging to holding prices in the trading ranges that we have seen since the end of the year.
I am going to try to update this page on the website every couple of days here. Let me know what you think of this page and if the information is helpful for you.
Thank You
Brandon Burbidge
Grain Merchandiser